tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post8650397392696579624..comments2023-06-20T02:25:36.578-07:00Comments on The Scholar's Stage: All Measures Short of a Cross Straits InvasionT. Greerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04621529800248145193noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-38246079619654823882021-03-15T10:45:51.115-07:002021-03-15T10:45:51.115-07:00When I lived in Taiwan, I was told that the Army h...When I lived in Taiwan, I was told that the Army had a 10 year rice supply, which they eat for rations, and thus the rice is gross because it so old. So, food-wise, they might be okay.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-46189355189514119812021-03-10T09:08:51.914-08:002021-03-10T09:08:51.914-08:00My queasiness with the idea of a quarantine (or a ...My queasiness with the idea of a quarantine (or a blockade) is that it gives various parties a long time to come up with a reaction. A reaction that you may not be able to anticipate. Stretching out a crisis doesn't necessarily make for better results.<br /><br />“If you want to lose a fight, talk about it first.” Richard K. Morgan - Altered Carbonrussell1200https://www.blogger.com/profile/16258915475311426433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-3733518803645797442021-03-08T08:43:38.100-08:002021-03-08T08:43:38.100-08:00Well, T. Greer, not all situations fit that mold. ...Well, T. Greer, not all situations fit that mold. The U.S. has been hostile to Iran ever since the Revolution, and the same has happened in regards to Cuba. Largely the same goes with North Korea. I don't think the U.S. will ever lift sanctions on Krim, and it's tough seeing the U.S. lift sanctions on Syria. Likewise, the list of U.S. allies has been fairly consistent since the end of pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-55506034005013266492021-03-07T21:59:31.812-08:002021-03-07T21:59:31.812-08:00Small thinking. China goes big. The strait tunnel ...Small thinking. China goes big. The strait tunnel started already.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-1821052929168682722021-03-06T23:34:44.929-08:002021-03-06T23:34:44.929-08:00@pithom If China successfully takes Taiwan, that w...@pithom If China successfully takes Taiwan, that will demonstrate to the world that the US is either unwilling or unable to defend it. This will force the US's allies to do a quick reevaluation of the global balance of power and adjust their position accordingly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-49984379132932635192021-03-06T13:26:52.099-08:002021-03-06T13:26:52.099-08:00@Pithom--
i don't actually think it will last...@Pithom--<br /><br />i don't actually think it will last for decades. Post Tiananmen rapprochement occurred in less than ten years; less than a decade after Quomoy, and even less years after Chinese AA guns shot down American planes over Vietnam, there was a movement afoot for rapprochement, the constraining factoring being the Chinese side. Short memories are the rule for great power T. Greerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04621529800248145193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-30283748283021368112021-03-05T11:02:19.950-08:002021-03-05T11:02:19.950-08:00How long could China sustain a quarantine if it...How long could China sustain a quarantine if it's oil 'pipeline' from the Persian Gulf was interdicted in the Indian Ocean?John Fisherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00442268389104530659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-71928693414087273892021-03-04T18:19:53.646-08:002021-03-04T18:19:53.646-08:00I would presume the US would blockade China in tur...I would presume the US would blockade China in turn if it was serious about defending Taiwan (to be sure, a big if). I have always assumed that China's main concern about war with the US was their inalienability to keep their sea lanes open. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-9446888648992005342021-03-04T17:10:28.962-08:002021-03-04T17:10:28.962-08:00In my opinion, the reader is better served by thin...In my opinion, the reader is better served by thinking of China's international relations after its inevitable victory. The lower state of these relations is why China hasn't already taken Taiwan. Can you imagine how bad Anglo-Chinese or Swedish-Chinese relations will be? And that's something that will last for decades. There are a lot of butterflies fluttering out from a Chinese pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-40598881780069936052021-03-04T16:53:04.682-08:002021-03-04T16:53:04.682-08:00"But if the Party leadership (or just as impo..."But if the Party leadership (or just as importantly, the Chinese people) go to war with the belief that victory will be a quick and easy thing, their tolerance for bearing these costs over an extended period of time might be much smaller than Henley predicts."<br /><br />Doesn't this contradict what you said a few years ago?<br /><br />https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2015/06/pithomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13997094225496018110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-19248915304690728382021-03-03T23:52:35.420-08:002021-03-03T23:52:35.420-08:00In all the economic warfare scenarios you propose,...In all the economic warfare scenarios you propose, it's not obvious China would break before the USA does.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7378807093271153119.post-15229244988781493152021-03-03T18:34:48.522-08:002021-03-03T18:34:48.522-08:00Thanks for looking into these arguments, it does c...Thanks for looking into these arguments, it does clarify to some extent what a scenario that isn't just "Cross Straits Invasion Armageddon" looks like. <br /><br />My biggest issue with all of the strategic thinking is the failure to elaborate on what domestic upheaval from failure looks like in China. Yes, it would be quite the shock to not be immediately successful. But what Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com